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Southparkhero
Joined: 23 Aug 2008
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Location: Some place in NJ.
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 Posted: Sun Sep 09, 2012 3:26 pm Post subject: |
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I did some statistics and to summarize it you should be very close to 200 pounds by week 38.
You are losing approximately 4.05 pounds per week.
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PiemanLK
Joined: 03 Dec 2007
Posts: 4711
Location: /export/home
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| Posted: Sun Sep 09, 2012 4:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Southparkhero wrote: | I did some statistics and to summarize it you should be very close to 200 pounds by week 38.
You are losing approximately 4.05 pounds per week. |
Remember what happened last time you did statistics?
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blingdomepiece 
Joined: 03 Aug 2007
Posts: 4358
Location: Ottawa ON Canada
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| Posted: Sun Sep 09, 2012 6:41 pm Post subject: |
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| Southparkhero wrote: | I did some statistics and to summarize it you should be very close to 200 pounds by week 38.
You are losing approximately 4.05 pounds per week. |
It's not a linear function. At some point it slows down. That said, Bob's doing all the things necessary to reach a healthy equilibrium point when his body is ready to naturally get there.
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Southparkhero
Joined: 23 Aug 2008
Posts: 3251
Location: Some place in NJ.
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| Posted: Mon Sep 10, 2012 1:18 am Post subject: |
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| PiemanLK wrote: | | Southparkhero wrote: | I did some statistics and to summarize it you should be very close to 200 pounds by week 38.
You are losing approximately 4.05 pounds per week. |
Remember what happened last time you did statistics? |
no
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Southparkhero
Joined: 23 Aug 2008
Posts: 3251
Location: Some place in NJ.
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| Posted: Mon Sep 10, 2012 1:19 am Post subject: |
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| blingdomepiece wrote: | | Southparkhero wrote: | I did some statistics and to summarize it you should be very close to 200 pounds by week 38.
You are losing approximately 4.05 pounds per week. |
It's not a linear function. At some point it slows down. That said, Bob's doing all the things necessary to reach a healthy equilibrium point when his body is ready to naturally get there. |
so far it's clearly linear with an r of .99
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f4phantom2500
Joined: 15 Mar 2007
Posts: 2885
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| Posted: Mon Sep 10, 2012 12:57 pm Post subject: |
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| BigFatBob wrote: |
Oh, them advanced exercises...maybe one of these days. I'm still struggling to do a single damned chin-up; I only just now got my forehead past the pull-up bar, so I'm close, at least!  Anyway, as far as martial arts is concerned, having a bit of an edge in the strength department is often the last line of defense when you find yourself on the receiving end of a choke, so yeah, I'd say that having the strength to work your way out of one of those is super important. Of course, this is all kind of a moot point at the moment since I don't actually do any of that stuff, but like I said before, eventually, right?  |
Haha, well someone your size doing pull ups and dips is probably about in line with someone my size doing muscle ups and handstand push ups.
Also, for what its worth, I'm pretty confident that most people that practice martial arts aren't as strong as the level I'm describing, which is why I say that's a solid relatively high level to aim for. A typical martial artist my size would likely rely on speed and skill rather than strength, however on average strength levels are probably about on par with someone my size doing pull ups and dips. Of course, this will vary from dojo to dojo and discipline to discipline (some arts will inherently benefit more from the extra strength), and considering the lifestyle of the individual. However, for example, it is not uncommon for a fairly skilled martial artist to not be able to do a clean handstand push up or one arm push up (I use those examples because, despite the rarity of those moves when compared to dips or pull ups, they are much more common than muscle ups and do require a certain level of strength for reasonable execution).
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Last edited by f4phantom2500 on Thu Sep 13, 2012 7:49 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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LCBetz
Joined: 09 Jun 2007
Posts: 883
Location: Eau Claire, WI
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| Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2012 8:51 pm Post subject: |
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| Southparkhero wrote: | | blingdomepiece wrote: | | Southparkhero wrote: | I did some statistics and to summarize it you should be very close to 200 pounds by week 38.
You are losing approximately 4.05 pounds per week. |
It's not a linear function. At some point it slows down. That said, Bob's doing all the things necessary to reach a healthy equilibrium point when his body is ready to naturally get there. |
so far it's clearly linear with an r of .99 |
Nope, despite the current high level of correlation, it is in fact not linear. At the risk of seriously over-nerdifying things here, I will show that the reason for this can be seen by looking at the residual plot. What I did is I took the residuals (the distance between the data points and the line of best fit from the linear model) and plotted it against the independent variable (in this case, weeks).
If the function were linear, the data points in the plot above would be randomly scattered around 0.0. Instead, we see a U-shaped pattern (indicating that a linear model is not the best fit). I became curious about other alternative models, and I found that a logarithmic function (weeks vs. log(weight)) appears to be a better fit than a linear one, although that's not entirely perfect either.
Anyway, I'm not trying to show you up or anything, Southparkhero. This analysis involves concepts that you simply wouldn't have found out about in your AP Stats course. That said, I'm probably boring everyone to tears here, and this thread is about BigFatBob's weight loss quest, not silly statistical mumbo-jumbo, so I'll just shut up and quietly back away.
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PiemanLK
Joined: 03 Dec 2007
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yksi-kaksi-kolme
Joined: 22 Jun 2008
Posts: 2803
Location: philly skramzzzz
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| Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2012 11:48 pm Post subject: |
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Screw anime
Also stewo just got knocked the fuck out
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blingdomepiece
Joined: 03 Aug 2007
Posts: 4358
Location: Ottawa ON Canada
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| Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2012 11:49 pm Post subject: |
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There is a bit more basic an argument to be made, namely that if it were a linear function and Bob continued the diet long enough he would have negative weight. I hope SPH's stats class serves him well in life but it's not particularly useful applied to this topic.
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Southparkhero
Joined: 23 Aug 2008
Posts: 3251
Location: Some place in NJ.
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| Posted: Tue Sep 11, 2012 11:58 pm Post subject: |
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| LCBetz wrote: | | Southparkhero wrote: | | blingdomepiece wrote: | | Southparkhero wrote: | I did some statistics and to summarize it you should be very close to 200 pounds by week 38.
You are losing approximately 4.05 pounds per week. |
It's not a linear function. At some point it slows down. That said, Bob's doing all the things necessary to reach a healthy equilibrium point when his body is ready to naturally get there. |
so far it's clearly linear with an r of .99 |
Nope, despite the current high level of correlation, it is in fact not linear. At the risk of seriously over-nerdifying things here, I will show that the reason for this can be seen by looking at the residual plot. What I did is I took the residuals (the distance between the data points and the line of best fit from the linear model) and plotted it against the independent variable (in this case, weeks).
If the function were linear, the data points in the plot above would be randomly scattered around 0.0. Instead, we see a U-shaped pattern (indicating that a linear model is not the best fit). I became curious about other alternative models, and I found that a logarithmic function (weeks vs. log(weight)) appears to be a better fit than a linear one, although that's not entirely perfect either.
Anyway, I'm not trying to show you up or anything, Southparkhero. This analysis involves concepts that you simply wouldn't have found out about in your AP Stats course. That said, I'm probably boring everyone to tears here, and this thread is about BigFatBob's weight loss quest, not silly statistical mumbo-jumbo, so I'll just shut up and quietly back away. |
I actually learned about u-shaped residual plots. I knew that if it was U-shaped that linear regression can not be used, and something like log regression is a more appropriate model.
I just completely forgot about assumptions. Oops.
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bclare
Joined: 21 Jun 2008
Posts: 6048
Location: Boston
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| Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 12:42 am Post subject: |
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| Southparkhero wrote: | | LCBetz wrote: | | Anyway, I'm not trying to show you up or anything, Southparkhero. This analysis involves concepts that you simply wouldn't have found out about in your AP Stats course. That said, I'm probably boring everyone to tears here, and this thread is about BigFatBob's weight loss quest, not silly statistical mumbo-jumbo, so I'll just shut up and quietly back away. |
I actually learned about u-shaped residual plots. I knew that if it was U-shaped that linear regression can not be used, and something like log regression is a more appropriate model.
I just completely forgot about assumptions. Oops. |
Beat me to it. And yes, analyzing residual plots is definitely AP Stat material, and even just purely qualitative reasoning would suggest (as bdp said) that the linear model is not correct.
Anyway, Bob you're a mathematical marvel. Keep up the good work.
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BigFatBob
Joined: 15 Feb 2008
Posts: 1389
Location: Big Spring, TX
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| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 12:56 am Post subject: |
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Thanks, everyone. Also, sorry I've been gone so long; I've been busy as hell. Shit sucks. With that said, looks like I'm gonna have to update for two different weeks in a single post. Odd. Anyway...
Week 33
Hey, cool. Weighed 230 pounds, so another 4 pounds shed. Making some more ever so slight improvements on fitness; I've got my 5K right at 28 minutes, and I'm so damn close to being able to do that stupid chin-up I've been trying to do for ages now. I'll get there...eventually.
Week 34
Haha, oops. I freakin' ate like a king this week, so I only lost 1 pound; however, I still lowered the ol' number to 229 pounds. I'd say it was worth it, though. Got to eat some freakin' awesome BBQ, casual southern dining, Italian...now that I'm actually freakin' healthy and closer to my goal, I'm not so obsessed with my progress stagnating or going backward. Now that I'm actually in shape and know what it takes to stay in shape, I'm confident that I can keep myself in check. I feel like I actually have total control of my life for the first time in...well...ever, and it feels great.
Weight Loss to Date
January 28, 2012: 356 pounds
February 4, 2012: 351 pounds
February 11, 2012: 345 pounds
February 18, 2012: 341 pounds
February 25, 2012: 337 pounds
March 3, 2012: 332 pounds
March 10, 2012: 327 pounds
March 17, 2012: 323 pounds
March 24, 2012: 318 pounds
March 31, 2012: 314 pounds
April 7, 2012: 310 pounds
April 14, 2012: 306 pounds
April 21, 2012: 303 pounds
April 28, 2012: 296 pounds
May 5, 2012: 293 pounds
May 12, 2012: 290 pounds
May 19, 2012: 288 pounds
May 26, 2012: 281 pounds
June 2, 2012: 278 pounds
June 9, 2012: 275 pounds
June 16, 2012: 272 pounds
June 23, 2012: 268 pounds
June 30, 2012: 262 pounds
July 7, 2012: 259 pounds
July 14, 2012: 256 pounds
July 21, 2012: 254 pounds
July 28, 2012: 250 pounds
August 4, 2012: 247 pounds
August 11, 2012: 244 pounds
August 18, 2012: 239 pounds
August 25, 2012: 236 pounds
September 1, 2012: 234 pounds
September 8, 2012: 230 pounds
September 15, 2012: 229 pounds
Total weight loss: 127 pounds
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Squirrel 
Joined: 27 Jul 2006
Posts: 4828
Location: Wyano, PA (Come visit! My gameroom is always open.)
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| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 5:53 pm Post subject: |
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Keep it up, you'll get chin-ups in no time. 
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woozerkristen 
Joined: 16 Mar 2007
Posts: 1917
Location: Auburn/Tuskegee, AL
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| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 6:58 pm Post subject: |
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Awesome, Bob, and a pound is still a pound!
And a 28 minute 5k is is outstanding. I think you're ready to run from zombies for sure 
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