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FL4RE
Joined: 15 Jul 2008
Posts: 4178
Location: Liverpool yano
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 Posted: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:03 pm Post subject: |
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I'm lucky enough to be in quite an isolated part of the country, so cases have been very much few & far between. That said, we've adopted the same precautions that everyone else has.
We've still got people panic buying down here though, haven't been able to buy any yeast or flour for weeks!
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blingdomepiece 
Joined: 03 Aug 2007
Posts: 4358
Location: Ottawa ON Canada
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LlamaYip 
Joined: 23 Dec 2008
Posts: 3151
Location: Chicago, IL
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Cabanon wrote: | | My prediction: live concerts will return in 2021 only. sports events will happen with an empty building only. unless they only sell a quarter of the tickets, which would look weird as heck. |
I'm pretty worried about all of the above but especially sporting events, and sports in general. I keep reading things about this doing in a bunch of things we have in society like movie theaters, but if this takes out movie theaters then certainly it would also take out sports?
I'm currently pretty tepid on whether there will even be a fall semester in person.
Our school sent out an email essentially saying brace for downsizing, and I never thought that my job as a teacher would feel so insecure. Blah.
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Cabanon
Joined: 29 Oct 2007
Posts: 6464
Location: Quebec, Canada
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| Posted: Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:10 pm Post subject: |
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teaching should be fine but be prepared to do online classes. I don't know if you're already doing it or not, but most university here already jumped on this to continue school. like it or not, it is the way of the future. he's not as personal as when you're in front of a class tho.
for elementary and high school, i'm not worried at all since kids are the less affected by the virus. we expect to start school within 2-3 weeks, unless the massive Teacher's Union make too much pressure on the government, which would affect working in general since the parents will have to stay at home to take care of them, and start only in September. It will make it a 6 months hiatus from work and a huge hole $$$ in most families, hurting the economy alot.
We'll see.
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smokyprogg
Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 2418
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blingdomepiece
Joined: 03 Aug 2007
Posts: 4358
Location: Ottawa ON Canada
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| Posted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:23 am Post subject: |
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| smokyprogg wrote: | When the final death rate for this ends up being <0.5% of those infected, we're gonna feel so foolish for shutting down life as we know it for half the year.
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The death rate is significantly impacted by how overloaded the health care system ends up being, because of the number of cases that become serious and require extended hospital stays. That's why "life as we know it" had to be shut down.
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PiemanLK
Joined: 03 Dec 2007
Posts: 4711
Location: /export/home
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| Posted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:01 pm Post subject: |
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| smokyprogg wrote: | | Bunch of shit tl;dr |
So just to be clear you're okay with a disease that is between 2 and 12 times as deadly as the regular seasonal flu even -with- all the restrictions we've been placing around the country. Already almost as many people as twice as last year's flu have died so I suspect the number will be closer to the higher range of that estimate. And you're okay because it's mostly old people or people who were already sick dying, This disease is really bringing out everyone's support of eugenics apparently.
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smokyprogg
Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 2418
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| Posted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:46 pm Post subject: |
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| blingdomepiece wrote: | | smokyprogg wrote: | When the final death rate for this ends up being <0.5% of those infected, we're gonna feel so foolish for shutting down life as we know it for half the year.
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The death rate is significantly impacted by how overloaded the health care system ends up being, because of the number of cases that become serious and require extended hospital stays. That's why "life as we know it" had to be shut down. |
That's fair and totally viable for heavily impacted areas like NYC, but the fact is that we've gotten past that and successfully "flattened the curve." At this stage, many hospitals under lockdown orders can't afford to even operate.
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-25/rural-coronavirus-hospitals-call-for-emergency-funding
This doesn't even go into the fact that people can't get treatment for many other conditions at this point. A study came out yesterday saying untreated heart attacks as a consequence of being unable to receive care are estimated to have killed more than COVID in Austria last month. https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/advance-article/doi/10.1093/eurheartj/ehaa314/5820829
Or that estimates indicate suicides will rise 30% as consequence of the lockdown https://www.pinerest.org/media/Preparing-Michigan-for-the-Behavioral-Health-Impact-of-COVID-19-Report.pdf
Obviously this is a complex issue.
| PiemanLK wrote: | | smokyprogg wrote: | | Bunch of shit tl;dr |
So just to be clear you're okay with a disease that is between 2 and 12 times as deadly as the regular seasonal flu even -with- all the restrictions we've been placing around the country. Already almost as many people as twice as last year's flu have died so I suspect the number will be closer to the higher range of that estimate. And you're okay because it's mostly old people or people who were already sick dying, This disease is really bringing out everyone's support of eugenics apparently. |
For fuck's sake man, I'm not pushing eugenics, I'm saying that the reporting on this has overinflated the panic. (If you actually read instead of pithily responding, you would have seen the paper estimating the rate as between 1.2x and 2.0x now; funny how this just keeps dropping every time a new study comes out).
I'm not fine with this, but I do have serious issue with the lockdown policies now that we got past the phase where the potential overload of hospital facilities isn't an issue. The fact is that data coming is suggests it didn't do much to help in the first place. https://www.wsj.com/articles/do-lockdowns-save-many-lives-is-most-places-the-data-say-no-11587930911
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raynebc
Joined: 16 Jun 2008
Posts: 992
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| Posted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:38 pm Post subject: |
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| Yes, COVID-19 is much worse than the flu in that it has no established cure or vaccine and is so contagious. Yes, the global hype and reaction will probably be seen in hindsight as a very damaging overreaction. |
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blingdomepiece
Joined: 03 Aug 2007
Posts: 4358
Location: Ottawa ON Canada
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| Posted: Fri May 01, 2020 1:29 pm Post subject: |
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| smokyprogg wrote: |
Obviously this is a complex issue. |
Yes, and there are heavy costs to be paid beyond the ones you cite. Societies are having to weigh these costs against what would happen if the disease simply ran rampant. I don't think anyone is selling the lockdown as anything great ... it's just to some degree better than 2-3 million deaths in the US.
| raynebc wrote: | | Yes, the global hype and reaction will probably be seen in hindsight as a very damaging overreaction. |
Almost by definition, because with an exponentially growing disease, if you are a little bit late you might end up with 1/3 of the resources you need, and if you are a little bit early, you might end up with 3x too much. The best case scenario is the disease is mostly under control until a vaccine is available, and we have to put up with conspiracy theories and Monday Morning Quaterbacking in retrospect. I'll take it over mass death.
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raynebc
Joined: 16 Jun 2008
Posts: 992
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| Posted: Fri May 01, 2020 4:50 pm Post subject: |
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| The death of the global economy (and its related long-term hardships) versus an estimated 0.5% mortality rate is not an "easy choice." |
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blingdomepiece
Joined: 03 Aug 2007
Posts: 4358
Location: Ottawa ON Canada
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| Posted: Sat May 02, 2020 1:59 pm Post subject: |
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The global economy is not dead. It is just resting.
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PiemanLK
Joined: 03 Dec 2007
Posts: 4711
Location: /export/home
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| Posted: Sat May 02, 2020 3:47 pm Post subject: |
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Money is fake people are real
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TheLonging
Joined: 07 Apr 2008
Posts: 4191
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| Posted: Mon May 04, 2020 7:20 am Post subject: |
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| raynebc wrote: | | The death of the global economy (and its related long-term hardships) versus an estimated 0.5% mortality rate is not an "easy choice." |
Well if you want to look at it in terms of numbers instead of it... otherwise, not only is that just an estimate for what is something we are still learning new things about as the weeks go on, this also equates to about 38 million people that would die. I think I would take the 38 million people alive, thanks.
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Cabanon
Joined: 29 Oct 2007
Posts: 6464
Location: Quebec, Canada
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| Posted: Mon May 04, 2020 12:02 pm Post subject: |
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38 millions sure looks like a big number but how many of those 38 millions would have die anyway either of old age or illness ? How many die each year and how many newborn comes to life ? pretty sure the ratio 1:1. it's all good questions but I'm pretty sure we'll never know the answers for.
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